The military perspective is that it’s better to assume a threat exists and be relieved when one doesn’t materialize, as opposed to assuming there isn’t a threat, and thus being unprepared if one suddenly emerges. This, however, allows us to more easily navigate territory in terms of understanding the government’s mindset, because it’s binary: Either a threat exists or it doesn’t. Not only can we not assess the extent of any threat, we can’t say if one exists at all. Thus, the only logical conclusion that we can come to is that we do not know if UAPs represent a threat to the defense of the realm. However, Russian aircraft attempting to penetrate the UK ADR in the Cold War never showed hostile intent but they certainly represented a threat. We could debate that (assuming for the sake of argument that something exists) they have never shown any hostile intent and therefore can not represent a threat. The second and critical question is do UAPs represent a possible threat to the defense of the realm.
#Online contact book mod
This quote from a 1997 MoD document illustrates the thinking perfectly: So, if intent is unknown, even with good information about capability, no meaningful assessment of threat can be given. Thus, going back to our equation, no accurate value for intent can be given. But if we’re dealing with something unknown-possibly even extraterrestrial-we can’t even begin to make any assessment of intent. If we were dealing with technology from Russia or China, intelligence officers specializing in these countries could simply assess intent, drawing on their existing knowledge. Other sightings, however, will have no obvious explanation, which raises the question of how we could even begin to define intent. Some UFO sightings, for example, will be attributable to misidentifications of drones, meaning that intent could be assigned a value. As a further complication, sightings would have to be individually assessed, because different incidents will likely have different causes. With intent, however, we quickly run into an obvious problem, namely a lack of definitive data in a situation where there are multiple competing theories about the nature of the UFO phenomenon. In the context of our equation, this gives us a high value for capability. Simply put, this data suggests an impressive capability, with very high speeds, rapid acceleration, and extreme maneuvers being frequently seen. Not just eyewitness testimony from pilots, but radar data, FLIR (Forward-looking Infrared) films from military aircraft, and the associated MASINT (Measurement and Signature Intelligence) data from such films. When it comes to UFOs, we have some good data on capability. Threat is expressed as capability × intent (as an aside, risk is sometimes defined as probability × harm). It may surprise people to know that there’s an equation that defines threat often used in various government, military, and intelligence community agencies. It’s worth looking at this in a little detail, because this mindset contextualizes much of what follows. They consider the topic-as they consider most issues-in the context of threats and opportunities. The first point to make is that governments look at the UFO phenomenon in a rather different way than the UFO community. Even if I am the villain, I still have a story to tell. Some of this won’t be popular, so perhaps this chapter can be seen as a sort of “minority report,” and if the government is perceived as being the villain of the UFO story, perhaps that makes me the villain of this book.
In this chapter I’m going to use my previous experience to give readers an insight into why and how governments investigate UFOs, and the sorts of conclusions we reach.
I served for twenty-one years as a civilian employee of the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence (MoD), and in the 1990s I was assigned to a division where my duties included researching and investigating the UFO phenomenon. I have a somewhat different perspective on all this. In either case, a central belief among many in the UFO community is that a conspiracy exists to cover up the truth about an extraterrestrial presence. In this story, the government is sometimes seen as a single, monolithic entity, while other times, there’s the suggestion that some sort of cabal exists within government, managing UFO secrets. When it comes to the story of UFOs, the role of that villain is usually taken by the government. GOVERNMENT MINDSET AND OUR FUTURE AMONG THE STARSĮvery story needs a villain.
0 kommentar(er)
